**The 89.5% market-implied probability on “No” for another US government removal of public access to a major AI model in 2026 reflects the isolated, short-lived nature of the June 2026 Anthropic incident and the absence of comparable follow-on actions.** In mid-June, the Commerce Department issued an export-control directive requiring Anthropic to suspend access to its frontier models Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals (including non-citizen employees), citing a narrow jailbreak vulnerability that could enable cyber misuse. Because real-time nationality verification was impractical, Anthropic disabled the models globally for all users within hours. The controls were lifted within weeks—Mythos 5 partially restored to vetted partners by late June and Fable 5 returned more broadly by early July—after the company strengthened safeguards and agreed to enhanced government coordination on future releases. OpenAI faced parallel but milder pressure on its GPT-5.6 family, limiting initial rollout to a small set of administration-approved partners before broader availability. No equivalent full public-access removal has occurred since, despite ongoing executive-order frameworks for voluntary pre-release vetting of frontier large language models. Recent developments, including September reports on unrelated policy inconsistencies around Chinese models, show no escalation or new interventions against major US-developed systems. Traders view the Anthropic episode as a one-time response to acute cybersecurity concerns rather than the start of routine restrictions. With no reported incidents or credible signals of impending action in the final months of 2026, the market consensus treats repetition as unlikely absent a major new capability demonstration or security incident.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว11% โอกาส
$31,108 ปริมาณ
$31,108 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
11% โอกาส
$31,108 ปริมาณ
$31,108 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 89.5% market-implied probability on “No” for another US government removal of public access to a major AI model in 2026 reflects the isolated, short-lived nature of the June 2026 Anthropic incident and the absence of comparable follow-on actions.**
In mid-June, the Commerce Department issued an export-control directive requiring Anthropic to suspend access to its frontier models Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals (including non-citizen employees), citing a narrow jailbreak vulnerability that could enable cyber misuse. Because real-time nationality verification was impractical, Anthropic disabled the models globally for all users within hours. The controls were lifted within weeks—Mythos 5 partially restored to vetted partners by late June and Fable 5 returned more broadly by early July—after the company strengthened safeguards and agreed to enhanced government coordination on future releases.
OpenAI faced parallel but milder pressure on its GPT-5.6 family, limiting initial rollout to a small set of administration-approved partners before broader availability. No equivalent full public-access removal has occurred since, despite ongoing executive-order frameworks for voluntary pre-release vetting of frontier large language models. Recent developments, including September reports on unrelated policy inconsistencies around Chinese models, show no escalation or new interventions against major US-developed systems.
Traders view the Anthropic episode as a one-time response to acute cybersecurity concerns rather than the start of routine restrictions. With no reported incidents or credible signals of impending action in the final months of 2026, the market consensus treats repetition as unlikely absent a major new capability demonstration or security incident.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,108วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 89.5% market-implied probability on “No” for another US government removal of public access to a major AI model in 2026 reflects the isolated, short-lived nature of the June 2026 Anthropic incident and the absence of comparable follow-on actions.**
In mid-June, the Commerce Department issued an export-control directive requiring Anthropic to suspend access to its frontier models Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals (including non-citizen employees), citing a narrow jailbreak vulnerability that could enable cyber misuse. Because real-time nationality verification was impractical, Anthropic disabled the models globally for all users within hours. The controls were lifted within weeks—Mythos 5 partially restored to vetted partners by late June and Fable 5 returned more broadly by early July—after the company strengthened safeguards and agreed to enhanced government coordination on future releases.
OpenAI faced parallel but milder pressure on its GPT-5.6 family, limiting initial rollout to a small set of administration-approved partners before broader availability. No equivalent full public-access removal has occurred since, despite ongoing executive-order frameworks for voluntary pre-release vetting of frontier large language models. Recent developments, including September reports on unrelated policy inconsistencies around Chinese models, show no escalation or new interventions against major US-developed systems.
Traders view the Anthropic episode as a one-time response to acute cybersecurity concerns rather than the start of routine restrictions. With no reported incidents or credible signals of impending action in the final months of 2026, the market consensus treats repetition as unlikely absent a major new capability demonstration or security incident.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,108วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**The 89.5% market-implied probability on “No” for another US government removal of public access to a major AI model in 2026 reflects the isolated, short-lived nature of the June 2026 Anthropic incident and the absence of comparable follow-on actions.** In mid-June, the Commerce Department issued an export-control directive requiring Anthropic to suspend access to its frontier models Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals (including non-citizen employees), citing a narrow jailbreak vulnerability that could enable cyber misuse. Because real-time nationality verification was impractical, Anthropic disabled the models globally for all users within hours. The controls were lifted within weeks—Mythos 5 partially restored to vetted partners by late June and Fable 5 returned more broadly by early July—after the company strengthened safeguards and agreed to enhanced government coordination on future releases. OpenAI faced parallel but milder pressure on its GPT-5.6 family, limiting initial rollout to a small set of administration-approved partners before broader availability. No equivalent full public-access removal has occurred since, despite ongoing executive-order frameworks for voluntary pre-release vetting of frontier large language models. Recent developments, including September reports on unrelated policy inconsistencies around Chinese models, show no escalation or new interventions against major US-developed systems. Traders view the Anthropic episode as a one-time response to acute cybersecurity concerns rather than the start of routine restrictions. With no reported incidents or credible signals of impending action in the final months of 2026, the market consensus treats repetition as unlikely absent a major new capability demonstration or security incident.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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