The strong Republican lean of Washington's 4th congressional district, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 90.5% implied probability. Incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced a general-election matchup between Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky. McKinney consolidated Republican support while district voting patterns and registration data continue to constrain Democratic performance ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Cook Political Report and other ratings classify the race as safely Republican. Late developments such as major national political shifts, candidate-specific scandals, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome in a closely watched open-seat contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWA-04 House Election Winner
WA-04 House Election Winner
$50,629 ปริมาณ
$50,629 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
$50,629 ปริมาณ
$50,629 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$28,019 ปริมาณ
91%
Democratic Party
$22,611 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Washington's 4th congressional district, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 90.5% implied probability. Incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced a general-election matchup between Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky. McKinney consolidated Republican support while district voting patterns and registration data continue to constrain Democratic performance ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Cook Political Report and other ratings classify the race as safely Republican. Late developments such as major national political shifts, candidate-specific scandals, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome in a closely watched open-seat contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$50,629วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Washington's 4th congressional district, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 90.5% implied probability. Incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced a general-election matchup between Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky. McKinney consolidated Republican support while district voting patterns and registration data continue to constrain Democratic performance ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Cook Political Report and other ratings classify the race as safely Republican. Late developments such as major national political shifts, candidate-specific scandals, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome in a closely watched open-seat contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$50,629วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of Washington's 4th congressional district, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 90.5% implied probability. Incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced a general-election matchup between Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky. McKinney consolidated Republican support while district voting patterns and registration data continue to constrain Democratic performance ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Cook Political Report and other ratings classify the race as safely Republican. Late developments such as major national political shifts, candidate-specific scandals, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome in a closely watched open-seat contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย