Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the latest LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, driving the 60.5% implied probability for Anthropic as traders weigh its recent releases and consistent leads on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 32.5% despite GPT-5 series efficiency gains and strong benchmark showings elsewhere, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit near 0.5% amid limited LiveBench visibility. With the October resolution still months away, fresh model drops or LiveBench task refreshes could narrow gaps, but Anthropic's current edge and release cadence underpin the market consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 61%
OpenAI 33%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
61%
OpenAI
33%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Anthropic 61%
OpenAI 33%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,647 ปริมาณ
61%
OpenAI
$1,085 ปริมาณ
33%
DeepSeek
$177 ปริมาณ
1%
ByteDance
$235 ปริมาณ
1%
Moonshot
$217 ปริมาณ
1%
Nvidia
$240 ปริมาณ
1%
MiniMax
$224 ปริมาณ
1%
Mistral
$245 ปริมาณ
1%
Meituan
$177 ปริมาณ
1%
StepFun
$187 ปริมาณ
1%
Xiaomi
$187 ปริมาณ
1%
Z.ai
$175 ปริมาณ
1%
Amazon
$256 ปริมาณ
1%
Meta
$224 ปริมาณ
1%
$153 ปริมาณ
1%
Baidu
$236 ปริมาณ
1%
Tencent
$235 ปริมาณ
1%
SpaceXAI
$185 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$207 ปริมาณ
<1%
Microsoft
$230 ปริมาณ
<1%
Alibaba
$128 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the latest LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, driving the 60.5% implied probability for Anthropic as traders weigh its recent releases and consistent leads on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 32.5% despite GPT-5 series efficiency gains and strong benchmark showings elsewhere, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit near 0.5% amid limited LiveBench visibility. With the October resolution still months away, fresh model drops or LiveBench task refreshes could narrow gaps, but Anthropic's current edge and release cadence underpin the market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,649วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the latest LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, driving the 60.5% implied probability for Anthropic as traders weigh its recent releases and consistent leads on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 32.5% despite GPT-5 series efficiency gains and strong benchmark showings elsewhere, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit near 0.5% amid limited LiveBench visibility. With the October resolution still months away, fresh model drops or LiveBench task refreshes could narrow gaps, but Anthropic's current edge and release cadence underpin the market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,649วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the latest LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, driving the 60.5% implied probability for Anthropic as traders weigh its recent releases and consistent leads on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 32.5% despite GPT-5 series efficiency gains and strong benchmark showings elsewhere, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit near 0.5% amid limited LiveBench visibility. With the October resolution still months away, fresh model drops or LiveBench task refreshes could narrow gaps, but Anthropic's current edge and release cadence underpin the market consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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