The market assigns a leading 57.5% implied probability to “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at roughly 1500–1506 Elo, with incremental gains from 2026 releases such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 failing to close the remaining gap. Traders see the tight competitive landscape—where Anthropic’s consistent safety-focused updates and Google’s multimodal scaling keep pace without decisive breakthroughs—as evidence that hitting 1550 will require longer development cycles than the remainder of the year allows. This positioning leaves Anthropic at 32.5% as the clearest alternative, given its recent model cadence, while OpenAI and xAI trail at 1.8% each amid more measured progress.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNone in 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 1.8%
$54,452 ปริมาณ
$54,452 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
57%
Anthropic
32%
11%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 1.8%
$54,452 ปริมาณ
$54,452 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$10,084 ปริมาณ
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 ปริมาณ
32%
$7,388 ปริมาณ
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 ปริมาณ
2%
xAI
$5,414 ปริมาณ
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 ปริมาณ
1%
Mistral
$3,688 ปริมาณ
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 ปริมาณ
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market assigns a leading 57.5% implied probability to “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at roughly 1500–1506 Elo, with incremental gains from 2026 releases such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 failing to close the remaining gap. Traders see the tight competitive landscape—where Anthropic’s consistent safety-focused updates and Google’s multimodal scaling keep pace without decisive breakthroughs—as evidence that hitting 1550 will require longer development cycles than the remainder of the year allows. This positioning leaves Anthropic at 32.5% as the clearest alternative, given its recent model cadence, while OpenAI and xAI trail at 1.8% each amid more measured progress.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$54,452วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market assigns a leading 57.5% implied probability to “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at roughly 1500–1506 Elo, with incremental gains from 2026 releases such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 failing to close the remaining gap. Traders see the tight competitive landscape—where Anthropic’s consistent safety-focused updates and Google’s multimodal scaling keep pace without decisive breakthroughs—as evidence that hitting 1550 will require longer development cycles than the remainder of the year allows. This positioning leaves Anthropic at 32.5% as the clearest alternative, given its recent model cadence, while OpenAI and xAI trail at 1.8% each amid more measured progress.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$54,452วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market assigns a leading 57.5% implied probability to “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at roughly 1500–1506 Elo, with incremental gains from 2026 releases such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 failing to close the remaining gap. Traders see the tight competitive landscape—where Anthropic’s consistent safety-focused updates and Google’s multimodal scaling keep pace without decisive breakthroughs—as evidence that hitting 1550 will require longer development cycles than the remainder of the year allows. This positioning leaves Anthropic at 32.5% as the clearest alternative, given its recent model cadence, while OpenAI and xAI trail at 1.8% each amid more measured progress.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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