Anthropic's repeated leadership on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 at 1506 and multiple Opus variants clustered near 1497–1494 as of late August 2026, underpins its 12% market-implied odds as the likeliest to first reach 1550. Traders see Anthropic's edge in hard-reasoning and preference benchmarks, yet the 40-plus-point gap and incremental monthly gains make a breakthrough before year-end improbable. This dynamic drives the dominant 85% probability assigned to no model hitting the threshold in 2026, as OpenAI, Google, and others trail further behind amid steady but unspectacular releases. Upcoming frontier updates could narrow the distance, though historical patterns suggest the remaining timeline favors the "none" outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNone in 2026 85%
Anthropic 12%
Google 3.5%
OpenAI 1.9%
$116,883 ปริมาณ
$116,883 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
None in 2026
85%
Anthropic
12%
4%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 85%
Anthropic 12%
Google 3.5%
OpenAI 1.9%
$116,883 ปริมาณ
$116,883 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
None in 2026
$25,493 ปริมาณ
85%
Anthropic
$14,378 ปริมาณ
12%
$11,207 ปริมาณ
4%
OpenAI
$13,559 ปริมาณ
2%
xAI
$9,226 ปริมาณ
1%
DeepSeek
$13,036 ปริมาณ
<1%
Alibaba
$10,978 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 ปริมาณ
<1%
Z.ai
$9,533 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's repeated leadership on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 at 1506 and multiple Opus variants clustered near 1497–1494 as of late August 2026, underpins its 12% market-implied odds as the likeliest to first reach 1550. Traders see Anthropic's edge in hard-reasoning and preference benchmarks, yet the 40-plus-point gap and incremental monthly gains make a breakthrough before year-end improbable. This dynamic drives the dominant 85% probability assigned to no model hitting the threshold in 2026, as OpenAI, Google, and others trail further behind amid steady but unspectacular releases. Upcoming frontier updates could narrow the distance, though historical patterns suggest the remaining timeline favors the "none" outcome.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$116,883วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's repeated leadership on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 at 1506 and multiple Opus variants clustered near 1497–1494 as of late August 2026, underpins its 12% market-implied odds as the likeliest to first reach 1550. Traders see Anthropic's edge in hard-reasoning and preference benchmarks, yet the 40-plus-point gap and incremental monthly gains make a breakthrough before year-end improbable. This dynamic drives the dominant 85% probability assigned to no model hitting the threshold in 2026, as OpenAI, Google, and others trail further behind amid steady but unspectacular releases. Upcoming frontier updates could narrow the distance, though historical patterns suggest the remaining timeline favors the "none" outcome.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$116,883วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's repeated leadership on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 at 1506 and multiple Opus variants clustered near 1497–1494 as of late August 2026, underpins its 12% market-implied odds as the likeliest to first reach 1550. Traders see Anthropic's edge in hard-reasoning and preference benchmarks, yet the 40-plus-point gap and incremental monthly gains make a breakthrough before year-end improbable. This dynamic drives the dominant 85% probability assigned to no model hitting the threshold in 2026, as OpenAI, Google, and others trail further behind amid steady but unspectacular releases. Upcoming frontier updates could narrow the distance, though historical patterns suggest the remaining timeline favors the "none" outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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