Recent releases of frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI in mid-2026, including Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and GPT-5.6 Sol, have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1506–1511 range, yet still short of the 1550 threshold. This incremental progress amid steady but slowing capability gains underpins the market's strong 81% implied probability for no company reaching the mark before year-end. Anthropic's edge at 12.5% reflects its models' repeated leaderboard leadership and targeted advancements in reasoning benchmarks, while Google's and OpenAI's lower shares align with slightly narrower gaps in recent head-to-head evaluations. Traders weigh typical scaling timelines and the absence of announced breakthroughs that could accelerate gains in the final months of 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNone in 2026 81%
Anthropic 13%
Google 6.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,213 ปริมาณ
$114,213 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
81%
Anthropic
13%
7%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 81%
Anthropic 13%
Google 6.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,213 ปริมาณ
$114,213 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$25,038 ปริมาณ
81%
Anthropic
$13,930 ปริมาณ
13%
$10,858 ปริมาณ
7%
OpenAI
$13,071 ปริมาณ
2%
xAI
$8,897 ปริมาณ
1%
Z.ai
$9,533 ปริมาณ
1%
Alibaba
$10,681 ปริมาณ
1%
DeepSeek
$12,731 ปริมาณ
1%
Mistral
$9,474 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Recent releases of frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI in mid-2026, including Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and GPT-5.6 Sol, have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1506–1511 range, yet still short of the 1550 threshold. This incremental progress amid steady but slowing capability gains underpins the market's strong 81% implied probability for no company reaching the mark before year-end. Anthropic's edge at 12.5% reflects its models' repeated leaderboard leadership and targeted advancements in reasoning benchmarks, while Google's and OpenAI's lower shares align with slightly narrower gaps in recent head-to-head evaluations. Traders weigh typical scaling timelines and the absence of announced breakthroughs that could accelerate gains in the final months of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$114,213วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Recent releases of frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI in mid-2026, including Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and GPT-5.6 Sol, have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1506–1511 range, yet still short of the 1550 threshold. This incremental progress amid steady but slowing capability gains underpins the market's strong 81% implied probability for no company reaching the mark before year-end. Anthropic's edge at 12.5% reflects its models' repeated leaderboard leadership and targeted advancements in reasoning benchmarks, while Google's and OpenAI's lower shares align with slightly narrower gaps in recent head-to-head evaluations. Traders weigh typical scaling timelines and the absence of announced breakthroughs that could accelerate gains in the final months of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$114,213วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent releases of frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI in mid-2026, including Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and GPT-5.6 Sol, have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1506–1511 range, yet still short of the 1550 threshold. This incremental progress amid steady but slowing capability gains underpins the market's strong 81% implied probability for no company reaching the mark before year-end. Anthropic's edge at 12.5% reflects its models' repeated leaderboard leadership and targeted advancements in reasoning benchmarks, while Google's and OpenAI's lower shares align with slightly narrower gaps in recent head-to-head evaluations. Traders weigh typical scaling timelines and the absence of announced breakthroughs that could accelerate gains in the final months of 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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