Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNone in 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 ปริมาณ
$54,452 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
57%
Anthropic
33%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 ปริมาณ
$54,452 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$10,084 ปริมาณ
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 ปริมาณ
33%
$7,388 ปริมาณ
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 ปริมาณ
3%
xAI
$5,414 ปริมาณ
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 ปริมาณ
1%
Mistral
$3,688 ปริมาณ
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 ปริมาณ
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$54,452วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$54,452วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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