Recent 2025 sales figures of roughly $59.6 billion set a high bar for 2026 to reach the $65 billion threshold, requiring sustained double-digit growth that current auction rebounds have yet to deliver consistently. Spring 2026 results showed modest gains in Impressionist and Contemporary segments alongside improved collector sentiment, yet broader economic pressures, trade policy uncertainty, and uneven high-end demand continue to cap momentum. Traders view the market-implied 68% probability for “No” as reflecting these barriers, with full-year resolution likely hinging on late-2026 fair and auction performance plus any macroeconomic shifts that could accelerate or stall the recovery trajectory.