The closely contested odds reflect the global art market's recent rebound to $59.6 billion in 2025 sales—an encouraging 4% rise from the prior year's $57.5 billion—yet still well short of the $65 billion threshold for 2026. Stronger auction results, particularly in the U.S. where high-end single-owner collections fueled a second-half surge, and rising dealer confidence have narrowed the gap, but ongoing economic headwinds and variable wealth trends continue to temper expectations for the sustained double-digit growth required. Key upcoming catalysts include mid-year auction tallies, dealer surveys, and macroeconomic signals that could clarify whether momentum accelerates or stalls.