Anthropic’s IPO prospectus disclosures and November listing timeline represent the dominant catalyst for end-November 2026 valuation odds, with revenue scaling to a $65 billion annualized run rate by July offset by $518 billion in multi-year compute commitments and 2025 operating losses exceeding $8 billion. Traders price in the tension between rapid adoption of Claude models and the capital intensity required to sustain frontier training, producing tightly clustered implied probabilities across the $500 billion to $2 trillion buckets. Secondary market quotes near $910 billion and analyst skepticism that a $2 trillion IPO multiple (roughly 31 times the July run rate) is sustainable further anchor sentiment, while any pre-Thanksgiving pricing clarity or Q3 revenue beats could shift the distribution.