Aisha Wahab holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market following her August 18 runoff victory over Melissa Hernandez, who sits at 17%. Wahab advanced as the top vote-getter in both the June 2 regular primary (38%) and June 16 special primary (43%), establishing a substantial lead before outside spending from pro-Israel groups narrowed the final margin to 53-47%. The contest arose after Eric Swalwell resigned amid misconduct allegations, triggering the vacancy and top-two runoff format. Late mail ballots solidified Wahab's position in the closely watched East Bay district, where trader consensus now centers on her completion of the remainder term through January 2027. The same pairing advances to the November general for the full term under adjusted district lines.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$20,036 Vol.
$20,036 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aisha Wahab
84%
Melissa Hernandez
17%
$20,036 Vol.
$20,036 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aisha Wahab
$12,175 Vol.
84%
Melissa Hernandez
$7,861 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market following her August 18 runoff victory over Melissa Hernandez, who sits at 17%. Wahab advanced as the top vote-getter in both the June 2 regular primary (38%) and June 16 special primary (43%), establishing a substantial lead before outside spending from pro-Israel groups narrowed the final margin to 53-47%. The contest arose after Eric Swalwell resigned amid misconduct allegations, triggering the vacancy and top-two runoff format. Late mail ballots solidified Wahab's position in the closely watched East Bay district, where trader consensus now centers on her completion of the remainder term through January 2027. The same pairing advances to the November general for the full term under adjusted district lines.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
Volume
$20,036Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market following her August 18 runoff victory over Melissa Hernandez, who sits at 17%. Wahab advanced as the top vote-getter in both the June 2 regular primary (38%) and June 16 special primary (43%), establishing a substantial lead before outside spending from pro-Israel groups narrowed the final margin to 53-47%. The contest arose after Eric Swalwell resigned amid misconduct allegations, triggering the vacancy and top-two runoff format. Late mail ballots solidified Wahab's position in the closely watched East Bay district, where trader consensus now centers on her completion of the remainder term through January 2027. The same pairing advances to the November general for the full term under adjusted district lines.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,036Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market following her August 18 runoff victory over Melissa Hernandez, who sits at 17%. Wahab advanced as the top vote-getter in both the June 2 regular primary (38%) and June 16 special primary (43%), establishing a substantial lead before outside spending from pro-Israel groups narrowed the final margin to 53-47%. The contest arose after Eric Swalwell resigned amid misconduct allegations, triggering the vacancy and top-two runoff format. Late mail ballots solidified Wahab's position in the closely watched East Bay district, where trader consensus now centers on her completion of the remainder term through January 2027. The same pairing advances to the November general for the full term under adjusted district lines.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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