The market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect trader consensus on resilient economic data and sticky inflation that continue to support a restrictive policy stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—with a 0.6% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while the labor market showed steady payroll gains and unemployment at 4.3%. Following the April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid record dissent, markets now price an extended pause through year-end, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent approach and revised growth-inflation outlook. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where softer readings on jobs or prices could introduce modest scope for adjustment.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWalang pagbabago 94%
25 bps na pagtaas 4.0%
25 bps na pagbaba 2.6%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$5,570,856 Vol.
$5,570,856 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
3%
Walang pagbabago
94%
25 bps na pagtaas
4%
50+ bps na pagtaas
<1%
Walang pagbabago 94%
25 bps na pagtaas 4.0%
25 bps na pagbaba 2.6%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$5,570,856 Vol.
$5,570,856 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
$548,506 Vol.
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
$422,704 Vol.
3%
Walang pagbabago
$656,189 Vol.
94%
25 bps na pagtaas
$3,406,359 Vol.
4%
50+ bps na pagtaas
$537,298 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect trader consensus on resilient economic data and sticky inflation that continue to support a restrictive policy stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—with a 0.6% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while the labor market showed steady payroll gains and unemployment at 4.3%. Following the April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid record dissent, markets now price an extended pause through year-end, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent approach and revised growth-inflation outlook. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where softer readings on jobs or prices could introduce modest scope for adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$5,570,856Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect trader consensus on resilient economic data and sticky inflation that continue to support a restrictive policy stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—with a 0.6% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while the labor market showed steady payroll gains and unemployment at 4.3%. Following the April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid record dissent, markets now price an extended pause through year-end, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent approach and revised growth-inflation outlook. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where softer readings on jobs or prices could introduce modest scope for adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,570,856Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect trader consensus on resilient economic data and sticky inflation that continue to support a restrictive policy stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—with a 0.6% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while the labor market showed steady payroll gains and unemployment at 4.3%. Following the April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid record dissent, markets now price an extended pause through year-end, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent approach and revised growth-inflation outlook. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where softer readings on jobs or prices could introduce modest scope for adjustment.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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