Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, showing 3.8% year-over-year growth alongside resilient nonfarm payrolls, has anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal, traders see limited room for policy shifts in either direction. This consensus reflects the central bank’s data-dependent approach and recent communications stressing caution amid elevated uncertainty. A sharper slowdown in May or June labor market indicators or surprise cooling in upcoming CPI prints could still open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price pressures might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWalang pagbabago 94%
25 bps na pagtaas 3.9%
25 bps na pagbaba 2.1%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$5,651,385 Vol.
$5,651,385 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
2%
Walang pagbabago
94%
25 bps na pagtaas
4%
50+ bps na pagtaas
<1%
Walang pagbabago 94%
25 bps na pagtaas 3.9%
25 bps na pagbaba 2.1%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$5,651,385 Vol.
$5,651,385 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
$561,034 Vol.
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
$448,951 Vol.
2%
Walang pagbabago
$669,322 Vol.
94%
25 bps na pagtaas
$3,414,613 Vol.
4%
50+ bps na pagtaas
$557,466 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, showing 3.8% year-over-year growth alongside resilient nonfarm payrolls, has anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal, traders see limited room for policy shifts in either direction. This consensus reflects the central bank’s data-dependent approach and recent communications stressing caution amid elevated uncertainty. A sharper slowdown in May or June labor market indicators or surprise cooling in upcoming CPI prints could still open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price pressures might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$5,651,385Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, showing 3.8% year-over-year growth alongside resilient nonfarm payrolls, has anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal, traders see limited room for policy shifts in either direction. This consensus reflects the central bank’s data-dependent approach and recent communications stressing caution amid elevated uncertainty. A sharper slowdown in May or June labor market indicators or surprise cooling in upcoming CPI prints could still open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price pressures might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,651,385Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, showing 3.8% year-over-year growth alongside resilient nonfarm payrolls, has anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal, traders see limited room for policy shifts in either direction. This consensus reflects the central bank’s data-dependent approach and recent communications stressing caution amid elevated uncertainty. A sharper slowdown in May or June labor market indicators or surprise cooling in upcoming CPI prints could still open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price pressures might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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