Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a sequential pickup in core services and headline inflation, alongside elevated energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent at the late-April FOMC meeting. Resilient April employment gains and a stable 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning with the 93.5 percent market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 gathering. Traders are pricing in this pause as a risk-management stance against persistent inflation pressures, though a sharp decline in core readings or unexpected labor-market softening ahead of the June 16-17 meeting could still shift expectations toward a modest cut.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWalang pagbabago 94%
25 bps na pagtaas 4.0%
25 bps na pagbaba 2.1%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$5,602,016 Vol.
$5,602,016 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
2%
Walang pagbabago
94%
25 bps na pagtaas
4%
50+ bps na pagtaas
<1%
Walang pagbabago 94%
25 bps na pagtaas 4.0%
25 bps na pagbaba 2.1%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$5,602,016 Vol.
$5,602,016 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
$554,886 Vol.
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
$425,006 Vol.
2%
Walang pagbabago
$663,128 Vol.
94%
25 bps na pagtaas
$3,408,309 Vol.
4%
50+ bps na pagtaas
$550,688 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a sequential pickup in core services and headline inflation, alongside elevated energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent at the late-April FOMC meeting. Resilient April employment gains and a stable 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning with the 93.5 percent market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 gathering. Traders are pricing in this pause as a risk-management stance against persistent inflation pressures, though a sharp decline in core readings or unexpected labor-market softening ahead of the June 16-17 meeting could still shift expectations toward a modest cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$5,602,016Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a sequential pickup in core services and headline inflation, alongside elevated energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent at the late-April FOMC meeting. Resilient April employment gains and a stable 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning with the 93.5 percent market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 gathering. Traders are pricing in this pause as a risk-management stance against persistent inflation pressures, though a sharp decline in core readings or unexpected labor-market softening ahead of the June 16-17 meeting could still shift expectations toward a modest cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,602,016Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a sequential pickup in core services and headline inflation, alongside elevated energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent at the late-April FOMC meeting. Resilient April employment gains and a stable 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning with the 93.5 percent market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 gathering. Traders are pricing in this pause as a risk-management stance against persistent inflation pressures, though a sharp decline in core readings or unexpected labor-market softening ahead of the June 16-17 meeting could still shift expectations toward a modest cut.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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