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Halalan·Halalan Sa France

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Halalan·Halalan Sa France

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

BAGO
Apr 23, 2027
Polymarket

$9,820 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$87 Vol.

42%

Jordan Bardella

$895 Vol.

66%

Michel Barnier

$141 Vol.

11%

Valérie Pécresse

$156 Vol.

10%

Gabriel Attal

$549 Vol.

93%

Élisabeth Borne

$81 Vol.

33%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$104 Vol.

28%

Jean Castex

$64 Vol.

20%

Gérald Darmanin

$144 Vol.

11%

Sébastien Lecornu

$75 Vol.

49%

François Bayrou

$463 Vol.

10%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$41 Vol.

49%

Carole Delga

$148 Vol.

17%

Olivier Faure

$50 Vol.

48%

François Hollande

$132 Vol.

61%

Raphaël Glucksmann

$81 Vol.

49%

Manuel Bompard

$63 Vol.

16%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$6,383 Vol.

99%

Mathilde Panot

$84 Vol.

8%

Dominique de Villepin

$14 Vol.

55%

Marine Le Pen

$67 Vol.

58%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.As the 2027 French presidential election approaches, with Emmanuel Macron term-limited, multiple candidates have declared or positioned themselves for a run during 2026. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s May 2026 confirmation of a fourth bid on TF1 has intensified left-wing competition, prompting discussions of a unitary primary among figures like Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier, and ex-LFI members. On the center-right, Bruno Retailleau’s February declaration and calls for a single candidacy by 90 officials highlight ongoing debates over primaries involving Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, and Gérald Darmanin. These early announcements and coalition efforts reflect party pressures and polling trends that shape trader assessments of who will formally enter the race before year-end.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$9,820
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 23, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.As the 2027 French presidential election approaches, with Emmanuel Macron term-limited, multiple candidates have declared or positioned themselves for a run during 2026. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s May 2026 confirmation of a fourth bid on TF1 has intensified left-wing competition, prompting discussions of a unitary primary among figures like Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier, and ex-LFI members. On the center-right, Bruno Retailleau’s February declaration and calls for a single candidacy by 90 officials highlight ongoing debates over primaries involving Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, and Gérald Darmanin. These early announcements and coalition efforts reflect party pressures and polling trends that shape trader assessments of who will formally enter the race before year-end.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$9,820
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 23, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 21 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" sa 99%, sinusundan ng "Gabriel Attal" sa 93%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 99¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 99% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Apr 22, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?," i-browse ang 21 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" ay "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" sa 99%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 99% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Gabriel Attal" sa 93%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.