The 98.7% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the successful containment of the Andes virus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship, with only 11–13 confirmed cases and three deaths reported by mid-2026. Official surveillance from WHO, ECDC, and CDC shows the strain—unique among hantaviruses for limited person-to-person transmission via prolonged close contact—originated from a single zoonotic rodent spillover without evidence of sustained community spread or increased transmissibility. Standard rodent-borne hantaviruses maintain low R0 values and require specific ecological conditions for wider outbreaks, while rapid quarantine, contact tracing across 33 countries, and 42-day monitoring periods prevented escalation. Ongoing national surveillance in endemic areas like Argentina continues to report typical seasonal case counts without pandemic thresholds. A shift would require undetected mutations enabling efficient airborne spread or multiple simultaneous spillovers overwhelming response capacity.