Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and supporting models place Busan’s August 23 maximum near 31–33 °C under persistent subtropical high pressure and humid southerly flow typical of late summer. This climatological baseline, combined with limited recent model shifts toward clearer skies that could allow modest additional warming, underpins the market’s concentration on 33–34 °C outcomes. Higher probabilities for 34 °C reflect trader assessment of ensemble spread and the potential for localized urban heat or brief clearing, while lower odds for 35 °C or above acknowledge the slim likelihood of significant forecast revisions before the day’s official reading. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will provide the next key test of these probabilities.