Recent forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and regional sources show persistent cloud cover, showers, and light winds moderating temperatures in Chongqing on October 2, with consensus highs centered around 21–22°C amid autumnal cooling. High humidity near 85–90% and precipitation probabilities above 50% limit daytime heating by reducing solar insolation, while steering patterns keep the region under a moist, stable air mass rather than clearer subtropical flow. This explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds on 21°C and 22°C, with lower probabilities for outliers reflecting model spread in exact timing of any breaks in the overcast. Official observations from Chongqing meteorological stations will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.