**Forecast models place the overnight minimum for Buenos Aires on August 22 near 1 °C, with outcomes clustered tightly around 0 °C to –3 °C because small differences in radiative cooling and cold-air advection can shift the final reading across multiple thresholds.** Recent observations show mild conditions, with minima of 6–9 °C on preceding days under partly cloudy skies and light winds. A strengthening high-pressure system over Patagonia is expected to deliver drier, cooler air while promoting clear or clearing skies overnight, enhancing long-wave radiative heat loss from the surface. Calm winds and low humidity under this regime favor deeper cooling, potentially pushing readings to or below freezing at the official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional station. Uncertainty arises from model spread on exact cloud timing, wind speeds, and the arrival of any weak frontal boundary. Clear, calm conditions could add 2–3 °C of extra cooling relative to a breezy or overcast scenario. Historical late-August outbreaks have produced occasional sub-zero readings when these factors align, but baseline August lows average near 8–11 °C. Traders therefore assign roughly equal weight to the 1 °C–or-higher outcome and the cluster of near-freezing thresholds because the latest model runs and ensemble guidance remain within a narrow band around 0–2 °C.