**Current forecasts from meteorological models position the overnight low in Chengdu around 23–24°C for August 21, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 87.5% implied probability on 24°C.** In Chengdu's humid subtropical climate during late summer, minimum temperatures are shaped by high humidity, regional monsoon influences, and typical radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Recent extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate.com consistently show lows near 73–76°F (23–24°C), with daily ranges of roughly 31–33°C highs and no sharp cooling trend. **Climatological baselines support this positioning:** August average lows hover near 22–23°C, and current conditions reflect seasonal stability without anomalous cold-air intrusions or clear-sky radiative losses that could push readings lower. Hourly trends on preceding days indicate gradual overnight declines to the mid-20s°C, with showers or cloud cover limiting further drops. Market-implied odds on 21°C or below (around 20–21.5%) capture residual uncertainty in model runs, but the dominant consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of official guidance favoring a 23–24°C floor. Upcoming official observations from Chinese meteorological stations will resolve the market once the full daily minimum is confirmed.