Recent forecasts for Chongqing point to an overnight low near 27–28 °C on August 23 amid scattered thunderstorms and persistently high humidity typical of its subtropical monsoon climate. Cloud cover and convective timing remain the dominant variables: earlier or heavier rainfall could enhance radiative cooling and push the minimum toward 26 °C or below, while clearer intervals or urban heat retention favor 28–29 °C. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with roughly equal implied probabilities across the 26–28 °C range because model runs show limited consensus on exact precipitation timing and intensity. High humidity and the urban heat island effect further compress the diurnal temperature range, making small shifts in nocturnal conditions decisive for the lowest reading. Updated model guidance and radar trends through the evening will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.