Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show Chicago’s overnight low on August 22 centered in the mid-60s, with 66–67 °F emerging as the market favorite at 50 % implied probability. Key variables driving the tight spread versus the 45 % odds on 74 °F or higher include uncertain cloud cover and wind speeds that control radiational cooling, plus the moderating influence of Lake Michigan’s surface temperatures. Historical August normals near 65 °F provide context, yet short-term model disagreement on a possible warmer, more humid air mass creates the observed split. Updated NWS forecasts and next model cycle will likely sharpen resolution before the market closes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Chicago on August 22?
66-67°F 52%
74°F or higher 31%
64-65°F 30%
58-59°F 26%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
26%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
26%
64-65°F
30%
66-67°F
52%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
26%
74°F or higher
31%
66-67°F 52%
74°F or higher 31%
64-65°F 30%
58-59°F 26%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
26%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
26%
64-65°F
30%
66-67°F
52%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
26%
74°F or higher
31%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show Chicago’s overnight low on August 22 centered in the mid-60s, with 66–67 °F emerging as the market favorite at 50 % implied probability. Key variables driving the tight spread versus the 45 % odds on 74 °F or higher include uncertain cloud cover and wind speeds that control radiational cooling, plus the moderating influence of Lake Michigan’s surface temperatures. Historical August normals near 65 °F provide context, yet short-term model disagreement on a possible warmer, more humid air mass creates the observed split. Updated NWS forecasts and next model cycle will likely sharpen resolution before the market closes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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