Recent National Weather Service and private forecasts for Dallas indicate an overnight low near 80–83°F on August 21 under mostly clear skies and light southerly flow, consistent with the market’s clustered probabilities around 82–87°F. Persistent extreme heat, with daytime maxima exceeding 105°F, maintains elevated surface temperatures and limits nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the urban heat island. Model consensus shows minimal spread, though slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed could shift the minimum by a degree or two. With no frontal passage or significant cloud cover expected before dawn, the tight distribution across the 80–87°F range reflects trader assessment of these stable late-summer conditions and the narrow uncertainty range in official guidance.