**Persistent humid, cloudy, and showery conditions driven by a broad trough of low pressure are keeping overnight lows anchored near seasonal norms.** Forecasts from multiple sources for August 31, 2026, consistently indicate minimum temperatures of 25–27°C under mostly cloudy skies with high humidity (often 85–95%) and scattered thunderstorms or rain. This setup limits radiative cooling overnight, a key factor in Hong Kong’s subtropical summer climate where typical late-August lows average around 25–26°C per Hong Kong Observatory normals. Recent observations on August 30 show similar patterns, with temperatures holding in the mid-to-upper 20s amid ongoing thundery showers and light winds, reinforcing model consensus for no significant deviation. Higher probabilities for 26°C (47.5%) followed by 27°C and 25°C reflect this narrow, climatologically supported range, while lower odds for extremes account for forecast uncertainty in timing and intensity of any heavier rain bands. Resolution will depend on the official overnight minimum recorded by the Observatory.