Current short-range forecast models from the National Weather Service show moderate uncertainty in overnight marine layer development and onshore flow strength, keeping the lowest temperature on October 1 closely contested between sub-58°F and 76°F+ outcomes. Ensemble guidance currently favors a daily minimum near 65–70°F under mostly clear conditions after morning low clouds, several degrees above the 1991–2020 average low of 61.8°F for the date. Recent shifts in GFS and ECMWF runs have highlighted potential for either enhanced radiational cooling or warmer downslope winds, driving the near-even market split. Updated NWS point forecasts and the next model cycle on September 30 will likely refine the resolution threshold.