Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate Warsaw's overnight low on August 22 will likely settle between 12–15 °C, driven by increasing cloud cover, light westerly winds, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling after sunset. These conditions contrast with clearer, calmer nights that could push readings toward 12 °C or below, while stronger mixing or delayed clearing would favor 15–16 °C. Ensemble spreads in global models reflect this narrow uncertainty, explaining why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 13–15 °C with lower probabilities assigned to extremes. Historical August minima near 12–13 °C provide additional context, but the immediate synoptic pattern—moist Atlantic air and modest pressure gradients—remains the dominant near-term influence. Updated model runs and observational data tonight will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.