Mike Perry enters the welterweight main event as the 60.5% favorite due to his seven-year age advantage and far superior recent activity level. The 34-year-old has competed regularly in bare-knuckle boxing, including a 6-0 streak that keeps his striking sharp and power intact, while 41-year-old Nate Diaz has not fought MMA since submitting Tony Ferguson in 2022. Perry’s heavier hands and forward pressure are expected to limit Diaz’s grappling opportunities early, though Diaz’s trademark durability and Stockton-style cardio could extend the bout if he survives the initial exchanges. Open workouts highlighted Perry’s intensity against Diaz’s more relaxed approach, reinforcing the market’s view that fresher conditioning and knockout threat tilt the matchup toward the younger fighter.