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Politika·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

icon for Next Premier of Victoria
Politika·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

Jess Wilson 63%

Ben Carroll 20%

Warren Pickering 11%

Jacinta Allan 4.3%

Polymarket
BAGO

$10,577 Vol.

Jess Wilson 63%

Ben Carroll 20%

Warren Pickering 11%

Jacinta Allan 4.3%

Polymarket
BAGO

$10,577 Vol.

icon for Jess Wilson

Jess Wilson

$917 Vol.

63%

icon for Ben Carroll

Ben Carroll

$643 Vol.

20%

icon for Warren Pickering

Warren Pickering

$978 Vol.

11%

icon for Jacinta Allan

Jacinta Allan

$192 Vol.

4%

icon for Emma Kealy

Emma Kealy

$1,028 Vol.

4%

icon for Sonya Kilkenny

Sonya Kilkenny

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Steve Dimopoulos

Steve Dimopoulos

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Gabrielle Williams

Gabrielle Williams

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for David Southwick

David Southwick

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Brad Battin

Brad Battin

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for James Newbury

James Newbury

$1,066 Vol.

<1%

icon for Danny O'Brien

Danny O'Brien

$1,303 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ellen Sandell

Ellen Sandell

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jaclyn Symes

Jaclyn Symes

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sam Groth

Sam Groth

$1,066 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson, the Liberal opposition leader since late 2025, holds the strongest implied probability in the market ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election. Recent DemosAU polling shows the Coalition ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, with Wilson preferred as premier over incumbent Ben Carroll. Traders reflect this positioning with Wilson at the top outcome, while Carroll’s share accounts for Labor’s path to retaining government despite the July 2026 leadership transition that installed him after Jacinta Allan’s resignation amid slumping polls and construction-sector integrity concerns. Lower probabilities for figures including Warren Pickering, Allan, Gabrielle Williams, and other Labor ministers align with the Coalition’s polling edge and the structural challenges facing the government four months from the election.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,577
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 28, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson, the Liberal opposition leader since late 2025, holds the strongest implied probability in the market ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election. Recent DemosAU polling shows the Coalition ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, with Wilson preferred as premier over incumbent Ben Carroll. Traders reflect this positioning with Wilson at the top outcome, while Carroll’s share accounts for Labor’s path to retaining government despite the July 2026 leadership transition that installed him after Jacinta Allan’s resignation amid slumping polls and construction-sector integrity concerns. Lower probabilities for figures including Warren Pickering, Allan, Gabrielle Williams, and other Labor ministers align with the Coalition’s polling edge and the structural challenges facing the government four months from the election.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,577
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 28, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kaugnay

icon for Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

78%
icon for Will Marianne Alto win the 2026 Victoria mayoral election?

Will Marianne Alto win the 2026 Victoria mayoral election?

91%
icon for Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

74%

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Next Premier of Victoria" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 15 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Jess Wilson" sa 63%, sinusundan ng "Ben Carroll" sa 20%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 63¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 63% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Next Premier of Victoria" ay naka-generate ng $10.6K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Aug 27, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Next Premier of Victoria," i-browse ang 15 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Next Premier of Victoria" ay "Jess Wilson" sa 63%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 63% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Ben Carroll" sa 20%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Next Premier of Victoria" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.