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Politika·Mamdani

NY-10 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

icon for NY-10 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Politika·Mamdani

NY-10 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Lander 30%+ 98.5%

Lander <10% 2.9%

Lander 20–30% <1%

Lander 10–20% <1%

Polymarket

$76,090 Vol.

Lander 30%+ 98.5%

Lander <10% 2.9%

Lander 20–30% <1%

Lander 10–20% <1%

Polymarket

$76,090 Vol.

Lander 30%+

$47,563 Vol.

99%

Lander 20–30%

$9,382 Vol.

1%

Lander 10–20%

$12,598 Vol.

<1%

Lander <10%

$3,360 Vol.

3%

Other

$2,075 Vol.

<1%

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Brad Lander secured a commanding lead in the NY-10 Democratic primary through a substantial polling advantage, including a May 2026 Emerson survey showing him ahead 57% to 23% over incumbent Dan Goldman. Progressive endorsements from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Sen. Bernie Sanders bolstered his position, aligning with district trends favoring left-leaning candidates after Mamdani's mayoral performance. Goldman's support from Gov. Kathy Hochul and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries proved insufficient against Lander's momentum from his prior mayoral bid and broader challenges to moderate incumbents. The June 23 primary produced early returns indicating a margin exceeding 30 points, consistent with trader consensus on the outcome. Late developments such as vote certification delays or recount triggers in close races remain the primary variables that could still influence final tallies, though historical patterns in safe Democratic districts limit their likelihood here.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$76,090
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 23, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 18, 2026, 10:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Brad Lander secured a commanding lead in the NY-10 Democratic primary through a substantial polling advantage, including a May 2026 Emerson survey showing him ahead 57% to 23% over incumbent Dan Goldman. Progressive endorsements from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Sen. Bernie Sanders bolstered his position, aligning with district trends favoring left-leaning candidates after Mamdani's mayoral performance. Goldman's support from Gov. Kathy Hochul and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries proved insufficient against Lander's momentum from his prior mayoral bid and broader challenges to moderate incumbents. The June 23 primary produced early returns indicating a margin exceeding 30 points, consistent with trader consensus on the outcome. Late developments such as vote certification delays or recount triggers in close races remain the primary variables that could still influence final tallies, though historical patterns in safe Democratic districts limit their likelihood here.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$76,090
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 23, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 18, 2026, 10:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "NY-10 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Lander 30%+" sa 99%, sinusundan ng "Lander <10%" sa 1%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 99¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 99% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "NY-10 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" ay naka-generate ng $76.1K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jun 18, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "NY-10 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "NY-10 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" ay "Lander 30%+" sa 99%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 99% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Lander <10%" sa 1%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "NY-10 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.