Recent August data showed the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, supporting market-implied odds clustered around 4.1% (33%) and 4.2% (26%). Traders price in continued labor-market stability near the breakeven hiring threshold amid moderating wage growth near 3.1% year-over-year and a modest rebound in labor-force participation. Seasonal adjustments, potential revisions to prior months, and mixed signals from leading indicators such as jobless claims and consumer spending create uncertainty, while the Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% funds rate range and upcoming September CPI data add sensitivity to any softening or reacceleration in hiring. The September reading, due October 2, remains closely contested given these offsetting dynamics.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateSeptember Unemployment Rate
September Unemployment Rate
4.1% 33%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 16%
4.3% 11%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
5%
3.9%
5%
4.0%
16%
4.1%
33%
4.2%
26%
4.3%
11%
4.4%
6%
4.5%
9%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 33%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 16%
4.3% 11%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
$589 Vol.
5%
3.9%
$105 Vol.
5%
4.0%
$62 Vol.
16%
4.1%
$657 Vol.
33%
4.2%
$84 Vol.
26%
4.3%
$62 Vol.
11%
4.4%
$176 Vol.
6%
4.5%
$505 Vol.
9%
≥4.6%
$505 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August data showed the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, supporting market-implied odds clustered around 4.1% (33%) and 4.2% (26%). Traders price in continued labor-market stability near the breakeven hiring threshold amid moderating wage growth near 3.1% year-over-year and a modest rebound in labor-force participation. Seasonal adjustments, potential revisions to prior months, and mixed signals from leading indicators such as jobless claims and consumer spending create uncertainty, while the Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% funds rate range and upcoming September CPI data add sensitivity to any softening or reacceleration in hiring. The September reading, due October 2, remains closely contested given these offsetting dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,746Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 2, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August data showed the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, supporting market-implied odds clustered around 4.1% (33%) and 4.2% (26%). Traders price in continued labor-market stability near the breakeven hiring threshold amid moderating wage growth near 3.1% year-over-year and a modest rebound in labor-force participation. Seasonal adjustments, potential revisions to prior months, and mixed signals from leading indicators such as jobless claims and consumer spending create uncertainty, while the Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% funds rate range and upcoming September CPI data add sensitivity to any softening or reacceleration in hiring. The September reading, due October 2, remains closely contested given these offsetting dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$2,746Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 2, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August data showed the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, supporting market-implied odds clustered around 4.1% (33%) and 4.2% (26%). Traders price in continued labor-market stability near the breakeven hiring threshold amid moderating wage growth near 3.1% year-over-year and a modest rebound in labor-force participation. Seasonal adjustments, potential revisions to prior months, and mixed signals from leading indicators such as jobless claims and consumer spending create uncertainty, while the Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% funds rate range and upcoming September CPI data add sensitivity to any softening or reacceleration in hiring. The September reading, due October 2, remains closely contested given these offsetting dynamics.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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