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Mundo·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner

icon for Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner
Mundo·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi 25%

Alvin Lafu Sika 12%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 11%

Samiuela Vea 9%

Polymarket
BAGO

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi 25%

Alvin Lafu Sika 12%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 11%

Samiuela Vea 9%

Polymarket
BAGO

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi

$1,713 Vol.

25%

Alvin Lafu Sika

$159 Vol.

12%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki

$198 Vol.

11%

Samiuela Vea

$167 Vol.

9%

Lei Paasi

$156 Vol.

5%

Mounu Uaisele

$505 Vol.

4%

'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila

$135 Vol.

3%

Sione Harvard Tupouniua

$196 Vol.

3%

'Olioni Manoa

$130 Vol.

1%

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The crowded field of nine candidates for the October 8 Tongatapu 2 by-election has fragmented support in this first-past-the-post contest, keeping implied probabilities tightly bunched among the leaders. The vacancy arose after Semisi Sika’s bribery conviction from the 2025 election led to his unseating and five-year ban, with former MP ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi opting not to run despite prevailing in the petition. Recent consolidation saw three withdrawn candidates back Malakai Matafonuafo’ou Koloamatangi, while village ties in Kolofo’ou, family connections such as Alvin Lafu Sika’s candidacy, and three women entrants further split the vote. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty ahead of polling, with separation likely only after clearer signals on turnout, last-minute endorsements, or voter preference consolidation in the final weeks.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$3,358
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 8, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The crowded field of nine candidates for the October 8 Tongatapu 2 by-election has fragmented support in this first-past-the-post contest, keeping implied probabilities tightly bunched among the leaders. The vacancy arose after Semisi Sika’s bribery conviction from the 2025 election led to his unseating and five-year ban, with former MP ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi opting not to run despite prevailing in the petition. Recent consolidation saw three withdrawn candidates back Malakai Matafonuafo’ou Koloamatangi, while village ties in Kolofo’ou, family connections such as Alvin Lafu Sika’s candidacy, and three women entrants further split the vote. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty ahead of polling, with separation likely only after clearer signals on turnout, last-minute endorsements, or voter preference consolidation in the final weeks.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$3,358
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 8, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 9 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi" sa 25%, sinusundan ng "Alvin Lafu Sika" sa 12%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 25¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 25% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Sep 9, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner," i-browse ang 9 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" ay "Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi" sa 25%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 25% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Alvin Lafu Sika" sa 12%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.