The preliminary results from New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election under the MMP system show the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition holding 67 seats in the 131-seat Parliament, just above the 66-seat majority threshold, driven by National securing 42 electorate seats and an 11-seat overhang despite trailing Labour slightly in the party vote. This seat distribution underpins the trader consensus reflected in the 98.2% odds for National as the election winner. Approximately 399,000 special votes remain to be counted before official results on 27 November, with historical patterns indicating limited scope for major shifts. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include special votes flipping multiple close electorates or adjusting overhang allocations enough to enable a Labour-led arrangement to reach majority, though current evidence points to high stability in the projected government formation.