The November 7 election produced a razor-thin preliminary result under New Zealand’s MMP system, with the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition securing 67 seats in the expanded 131-seat Parliament, just above the majority threshold. National captured enough electorate seats to create an overhang, while Labour edged the popular vote by 0.15 points but fell short on total seats. Nearly 400,000 special votes remain uncounted until the official results on November 27, and coalition talks have not yet begun. Traders therefore assign National a dominant probability of emerging as the government-forming party, though shifts in special-vote distribution or unexpected breakdowns in post-election negotiations could still alter the final outcome.