The VA-03 race remains tightly contested in trader assessments around the November 2026 general election because the district's Hampton Roads core, including Norfolk and Newport News, delivers a consistent but not overwhelming Democratic edge built on urban and minority voter turnout. Incumbent Bobby Scott secured the Democratic nomination after the August primary and enters as a long-serving representative with established local support, while Republican Edwin Rivera represents the main opposition in a seat last won by Democrats by wide margins. Low recent volatility in polling averages, fundraising gaps favoring the incumbent, and the absence of major national or local catalysts have kept projected victory margins clustered in the 25-40 point range, with traders assigning comparable weight across those buckets. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in early voting or absentee ballot patterns, any late-cycle national economic or policy developments affecting swing voters in the area, or unexpected campaign spending surges that alter turnout in key precincts. The November timeline leaves room for standard midterm dynamics to influence final spreads before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateVA-03 House Election Margin of Victory
VA-03 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 25-30% 37%
Democrat 35-40% 37%
Democrat 55%+ 37%
Democrat 50-55% 37%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 55%+
37%
Democrat 50-55%
37%
Democrat 45-50%
37%
Democrat 40-45%
37%
Democrat 35-40%
37%
Democrat 30-35%
37%
Democrat 25-30%
37%
Democrat 15-25%
37%
Democrat 0-15%
37%
Republican Wins
18%
Democrat 25-30% 37%
Democrat 35-40% 37%
Democrat 55%+ 37%
Democrat 50-55% 37%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 55%+
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 15-25%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 0-15%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican Wins
$58 Vol.
18%
The 2026 VA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The VA-03 race remains tightly contested in trader assessments around the November 2026 general election because the district's Hampton Roads core, including Norfolk and Newport News, delivers a consistent but not overwhelming Democratic edge built on urban and minority voter turnout. Incumbent Bobby Scott secured the Democratic nomination after the August primary and enters as a long-serving representative with established local support, while Republican Edwin Rivera represents the main opposition in a seat last won by Democrats by wide margins. Low recent volatility in polling averages, fundraising gaps favoring the incumbent, and the absence of major national or local catalysts have kept projected victory margins clustered in the 25-40 point range, with traders assigning comparable weight across those buckets. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in early voting or absentee ballot patterns, any late-cycle national economic or policy developments affecting swing voters in the area, or unexpected campaign spending surges that alter turnout in key precincts. The November timeline leaves room for standard midterm dynamics to influence final spreads before resolution.
The 2026 VA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
Volume
$58Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 VA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The VA-03 race remains tightly contested in trader assessments around the November 2026 general election because the district's Hampton Roads core, including Norfolk and Newport News, delivers a consistent but not overwhelming Democratic edge built on urban and minority voter turnout. Incumbent Bobby Scott secured the Democratic nomination after the August primary and enters as a long-serving representative with established local support, while Republican Edwin Rivera represents the main opposition in a seat last won by Democrats by wide margins. Low recent volatility in polling averages, fundraising gaps favoring the incumbent, and the absence of major national or local catalysts have kept projected victory margins clustered in the 25-40 point range, with traders assigning comparable weight across those buckets. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in early voting or absentee ballot patterns, any late-cycle national economic or policy developments affecting swing voters in the area, or unexpected campaign spending surges that alter turnout in key precincts. The November timeline leaves room for standard midterm dynamics to influence final spreads before resolution.
The 2026 VA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$58Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The VA-03 race remains tightly contested in trader assessments around the November 2026 general election because the district's Hampton Roads core, including Norfolk and Newport News, delivers a consistent but not overwhelming Democratic edge built on urban and minority voter turnout. Incumbent Bobby Scott secured the Democratic nomination after the August primary and enters as a long-serving representative with established local support, while Republican Edwin Rivera represents the main opposition in a seat last won by Democrats by wide margins. Low recent volatility in polling averages, fundraising gaps favoring the incumbent, and the absence of major national or local catalysts have kept projected victory margins clustered in the 25-40 point range, with traders assigning comparable weight across those buckets. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in early voting or absentee ballot patterns, any late-cycle national economic or policy developments affecting swing voters in the area, or unexpected campaign spending surges that alter turnout in key precincts. The November timeline leaves room for standard midterm dynamics to influence final spreads before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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