Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen’s strong performance in Washington’s 2nd district has kept trader focus on a 30-40% margin of victory. Historical Democratic leans of roughly 20-25 points, combined with Larsen’s long tenure and the district’s suburban and coastal voter base, produced a comfortable lead over Republican challenger Edwin Feller on election night. Early certified returns showed Larsen near 67-68% and Feller near 32%, aligning with the market’s highest-probability buckets. Limited campaign spending by the challenger and absence of late-breaking controversies have left little room for major shifts before final certification. Upcoming completion of absentee and provisional ballot counts remains the key near-term factor that could nudge probabilities between the 30-35% and 35-40% ranges.