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Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?

icon for What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?
Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?

Sep 30

Sep 30

<$1.176M 100%

$1.176M - $1.198M 100%

$1.198M - $1.220M 100%

$1.242M - $1.264M 100%

Polymarket
BAGO

<$1.176M 100%

$1.176M - $1.198M 100%

$1.198M - $1.220M 100%

$1.242M - $1.264M 100%

Polymarket
BAGO

<$1.176M

$0 Vol.

100%

$1.176M - $1.198M

$0 Vol.

100%

$1.198M - $1.220M

$0 Vol.

100%

$1.220M - $1.242M

$0 Vol.

50%

$1.242M - $1.264M

$0 Vol.

100%

$1.264M - $1.284M

$0 Vol.

100%

$1.284M+

$0 Vol.

100%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent trader positioning around San Francisco Metro median home values reflects balanced uncertainty driven by the interplay between AI-related wealth creation in the tech sector and elevated mortgage rates near 6%. Latest Zillow and Redfin data through May 2026 show typical values near $1.39 million and median sale prices around $1.7 million, with year-over-year gains of 7-16% in select segments amid low inventory and faster sales velocity. However, broader Bay Area figures near $1.17 million and mixed county-level trends highlight sensitivity to labor market softening and interest-rate path expectations. Key swing factors through September include upcoming FOMC communications, regional employment reports, and any shifts in housing supply or buyer demand from IPO activity. Market-implied odds near 50% across bins underscore the narrow range of plausible outcomes absent decisive new catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$0
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent trader positioning around San Francisco Metro median home values reflects balanced uncertainty driven by the interplay between AI-related wealth creation in the tech sector and elevated mortgage rates near 6%. Latest Zillow and Redfin data through May 2026 show typical values near $1.39 million and median sale prices around $1.7 million, with year-over-year gains of 7-16% in select segments amid low inventory and faster sales velocity. However, broader Bay Area figures near $1.17 million and mixed county-level trends highlight sensitivity to labor market softening and interest-rate path expectations. Key swing factors through September include upcoming FOMC communications, regional employment reports, and any shifts in housing supply or buyer demand from IPO activity. Market-implied odds near 50% across bins underscore the narrow range of plausible outcomes absent decisive new catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$0
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "<$1.176M" sa 50%, sinusundan ng "$1.176M - $1.198M" sa 50%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 50¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 50% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jul 1, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?" ay "<$1.176M" sa 50%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 50% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "$1.176M - $1.198M" sa 50%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.