Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 75.5% implied probability due to its Claude lineup—particularly Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5—dominating August 2026 style-controlled Chatbot Arena leaderboards and independent benchmarks for intelligence, agentic workflows, and coding. Recent releases emphasized refined output control, lower verbosity, and stronger performance on style-adjusted evaluations, widening the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, Google Gemini variants, and xAI Grok models. With roughly ten weeks until the October 31 resolution, sustained frontier-model updates or major benchmark shifts from competitors remain the primary swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 76%
Google 4.6%
Meta 5%
Nvidia 4.4%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
76%
5%
Meta
5%
Nvidia
4%
Amazon
4%
Tencent
4%
Microsoft
4%
OpenAI
4%
Meituan
4%
Alibaba
4%
DeepSeek
4%
StepFun
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Z.ai
3%
MiniMax
3%
Moonshot
3%
ByteDance
3%
Mistral
3%
Xiaomi
9%
Baidu
1%
Thinky
7%
Anthropic 76%
Google 4.6%
Meta 5%
Nvidia 4.4%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$1,766 Vol.
76%
$39 Vol.
5%
Meta
$92 Vol.
5%
Nvidia
$106 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$106 Vol.
4%
Tencent
$110 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$108 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$72 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$110 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$39 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$65 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$77 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$39 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$47 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$120 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$39 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$93 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$112 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$226 Vol.
9%
Baidu
$54 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$110 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 75.5% implied probability due to its Claude lineup—particularly Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5—dominating August 2026 style-controlled Chatbot Arena leaderboards and independent benchmarks for intelligence, agentic workflows, and coding. Recent releases emphasized refined output control, lower verbosity, and stronger performance on style-adjusted evaluations, widening the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, Google Gemini variants, and xAI Grok models. With roughly ten weeks until the October 31 resolution, sustained frontier-model updates or major benchmark shifts from competitors remain the primary swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$3,528Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 75.5% implied probability due to its Claude lineup—particularly Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5—dominating August 2026 style-controlled Chatbot Arena leaderboards and independent benchmarks for intelligence, agentic workflows, and coding. Recent releases emphasized refined output control, lower verbosity, and stronger performance on style-adjusted evaluations, widening the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, Google Gemini variants, and xAI Grok models. With roughly ten weeks until the October 31 resolution, sustained frontier-model updates or major benchmark shifts from competitors remain the primary swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,528Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 75.5% implied probability due to its Claude lineup—particularly Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5—dominating August 2026 style-controlled Chatbot Arena leaderboards and independent benchmarks for intelligence, agentic workflows, and coding. Recent releases emphasized refined output control, lower verbosity, and stronger performance on style-adjusted evaluations, widening the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, Google Gemini variants, and xAI Grok models. With roughly ten weeks until the October 31 resolution, sustained frontier-model updates or major benchmark shifts from competitors remain the primary swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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