Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 5 in July 2026 and earlier variants like Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, have driven the market's 86% implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of October. These models lead key benchmarks in coding, such as SWE-Bench Verified, advanced reasoning tasks, and cybersecurity evaluations, outpacing competitors through superior agentic capabilities and context handling. Traders appear to view this as sustained momentum from Anthropic's focus on reliable, high-performance large language models. In contrast, OpenAI and Google trail at 5.4% and 6.1% implied odds amid competitive but less dominant updates. Key upcoming catalysts include potential model iterations or capability demonstrations before the October deadline that could shift the closely watched competitive landscape.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Anthropic 86%
Google 6.1%
OpenAI 5.4%
SpaceXAI 3.9%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
6%
OpenAI
5%
SpaceXAI
4%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meituan
1%
Z.ai
1%
Microsoft
1%
Amazon
1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 6.1%
OpenAI 5.4%
SpaceXAI 3.9%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,876 Vol.
86%
$190 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$207 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$315 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$264 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$211 Vol.
1%
Meta
$197 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$202 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$219 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$232 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$224 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$187 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$208 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$181 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$201 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$214 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$234 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$214 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$214 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$214 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$202 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 5 in July 2026 and earlier variants like Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, have driven the market's 86% implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of October. These models lead key benchmarks in coding, such as SWE-Bench Verified, advanced reasoning tasks, and cybersecurity evaluations, outpacing competitors through superior agentic capabilities and context handling. Traders appear to view this as sustained momentum from Anthropic's focus on reliable, high-performance large language models. In contrast, OpenAI and Google trail at 5.4% and 6.1% implied odds amid competitive but less dominant updates. Key upcoming catalysts include potential model iterations or capability demonstrations before the October deadline that could shift the closely watched competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$9,206Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 5 in July 2026 and earlier variants like Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, have driven the market's 86% implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of October. These models lead key benchmarks in coding, such as SWE-Bench Verified, advanced reasoning tasks, and cybersecurity evaluations, outpacing competitors through superior agentic capabilities and context handling. Traders appear to view this as sustained momentum from Anthropic's focus on reliable, high-performance large language models. In contrast, OpenAI and Google trail at 5.4% and 6.1% implied odds amid competitive but less dominant updates. Key upcoming catalysts include potential model iterations or capability demonstrations before the October deadline that could shift the closely watched competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$9,206Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 5 in July 2026 and earlier variants like Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, have driven the market's 86% implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of October. These models lead key benchmarks in coding, such as SWE-Bench Verified, advanced reasoning tasks, and cybersecurity evaluations, outpacing competitors through superior agentic capabilities and context handling. Traders appear to view this as sustained momentum from Anthropic's focus on reliable, high-performance large language models. In contrast, OpenAI and Google trail at 5.4% and 6.1% implied odds amid competitive but less dominant updates. Key upcoming catalysts include potential model iterations or capability demonstrations before the October deadline that could shift the closely watched competitive landscape.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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