Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026 anchors trader consensus at a 94.5% implied probability for the third-largest 2026 debut. Strong critical reception (94% on Rotten Tomatoes), an “A” CinemaScore, and family audience loyalty drove the result, which topped the year-to-date benchmark set earlier by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and positioned the Pixar sequel ahead of most subsequent summer releases. Later tentpoles such as Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Avengers: Doomsday carry single-digit odds because current tracking and historical patterns point to more modest opening weekends. An upset would require one of those films to exceed expectations dramatically or for a surprise late-year release to post an outsized debut that reshuffles the ranking before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.8%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 2.1%
$30,493 Vol.
$30,493 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.8%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 2.1%
$30,493 Vol.
$30,493 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
$19,222 Vol.
95%
Dune: Messiah
$2,118 Vol.
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,698 Vol.
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,645 Vol.
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,900 Vol.
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$2,276 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026 anchors trader consensus at a 94.5% implied probability for the third-largest 2026 debut. Strong critical reception (94% on Rotten Tomatoes), an “A” CinemaScore, and family audience loyalty drove the result, which topped the year-to-date benchmark set earlier by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and positioned the Pixar sequel ahead of most subsequent summer releases. Later tentpoles such as Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Avengers: Doomsday carry single-digit odds because current tracking and historical patterns point to more modest opening weekends. An upset would require one of those films to exceed expectations dramatically or for a surprise late-year release to post an outsized debut that reshuffles the ranking before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Volume
$30,493Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026 anchors trader consensus at a 94.5% implied probability for the third-largest 2026 debut. Strong critical reception (94% on Rotten Tomatoes), an “A” CinemaScore, and family audience loyalty drove the result, which topped the year-to-date benchmark set earlier by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and positioned the Pixar sequel ahead of most subsequent summer releases. Later tentpoles such as Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Avengers: Doomsday carry single-digit odds because current tracking and historical patterns point to more modest opening weekends. An upset would require one of those films to exceed expectations dramatically or for a surprise late-year release to post an outsized debut that reshuffles the ranking before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$30,493Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026 anchors trader consensus at a 94.5% implied probability for the third-largest 2026 debut. Strong critical reception (94% on Rotten Tomatoes), an “A” CinemaScore, and family audience loyalty drove the result, which topped the year-to-date benchmark set earlier by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and positioned the Pixar sequel ahead of most subsequent summer releases. Later tentpoles such as Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Avengers: Doomsday carry single-digit odds because current tracking and historical patterns point to more modest opening weekends. An upset would require one of those films to exceed expectations dramatically or for a surprise late-year release to post an outsized debut that reshuffles the ranking before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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