Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the year’s strongest debut at the time and a franchise record—anchors trader consensus that it will finish third among 2026 openings. Its scale surpassed The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s earlier $131 million launch while establishing a high bar that most subsequent releases have yet to clear decisively. Strong family audience turnout, an A CinemaScore, and Pixar’s proven brand momentum reinforced the positioning. An upset remains possible if Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s opening or the December releases of Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah post larger three-day hauls than expected, or if another holiday tentpole exceeds current tracking.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.8%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.3%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$30,802 Vol.
$30,802 Vol.
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.8%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.3%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$30,802 Vol.
$30,802 Vol.
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the year’s strongest debut at the time and a franchise record—anchors trader consensus that it will finish third among 2026 openings. Its scale surpassed The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s earlier $131 million launch while establishing a high bar that most subsequent releases have yet to clear decisively. Strong family audience turnout, an A CinemaScore, and Pixar’s proven brand momentum reinforced the positioning. An upset remains possible if Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s opening or the December releases of Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah post larger three-day hauls than expected, or if another holiday tentpole exceeds current tracking.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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