Avengers: Doomsday commands the market lead at 72.5% implied probability because its December 18 release positions the MCU crossover as the year’s premier tentpole event, with Robert Downey Jr. returning in a high-profile role and the franchise’s history of massive holiday openings fueling trader consensus. Strong early box office tracking reports from industry insiders, including descriptions of the film “exploding” on long-lead metrics at CinemaCon, have reinforced momentum despite recent Marvel fatigue concerns. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 14.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s draw, though it contends with earlier 2026 competition like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s current record domestic debut. Lower-probability entries such as Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah lag due to mid-year timing and comparatively limited franchise crossover appeal that historically caps opening-weekend ceilings.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAnong pelikula ang may pinakamalaking opening weekend sa 2026?
Anong pelikula ang may pinakamalaking opening weekend sa 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 15%
The Odyssey 3.1%
Toy Story 5 3.1%
$1,571,931 Vol.
$1,571,931 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
15%
The Odyssey
3%
Toy Story 5
3%
Dune: Messiah
2%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian at Grogu
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 15%
The Odyssey 3.1%
Toy Story 5 3.1%
$1,571,931 Vol.
$1,571,931 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$118,995 Vol.
73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$43,631 Vol.
15%
The Odyssey
$146,997 Vol.
3%
Toy Story 5
$181,713 Vol.
3%
Dune: Messiah
$85,190 Vol.
2%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian at Grogu
$34,991 Vol.
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$59,114 Vol.
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$18,306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands the market lead at 72.5% implied probability because its December 18 release positions the MCU crossover as the year’s premier tentpole event, with Robert Downey Jr. returning in a high-profile role and the franchise’s history of massive holiday openings fueling trader consensus. Strong early box office tracking reports from industry insiders, including descriptions of the film “exploding” on long-lead metrics at CinemaCon, have reinforced momentum despite recent Marvel fatigue concerns. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 14.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s draw, though it contends with earlier 2026 competition like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s current record domestic debut. Lower-probability entries such as Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah lag due to mid-year timing and comparatively limited franchise crossover appeal that historically caps opening-weekend ceilings.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,571,931Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands the market lead at 72.5% implied probability because its December 18 release positions the MCU crossover as the year’s premier tentpole event, with Robert Downey Jr. returning in a high-profile role and the franchise’s history of massive holiday openings fueling trader consensus. Strong early box office tracking reports from industry insiders, including descriptions of the film “exploding” on long-lead metrics at CinemaCon, have reinforced momentum despite recent Marvel fatigue concerns. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 14.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s draw, though it contends with earlier 2026 competition like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s current record domestic debut. Lower-probability entries such as Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah lag due to mid-year timing and comparatively limited franchise crossover appeal that historically caps opening-weekend ceilings.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,571,931Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Avengers: Doomsday commands the market lead at 72.5% implied probability because its December 18 release positions the MCU crossover as the year’s premier tentpole event, with Robert Downey Jr. returning in a high-profile role and the franchise’s history of massive holiday openings fueling trader consensus. Strong early box office tracking reports from industry insiders, including descriptions of the film “exploding” on long-lead metrics at CinemaCon, have reinforced momentum despite recent Marvel fatigue concerns. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 14.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s draw, though it contends with earlier 2026 competition like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s current record domestic debut. Lower-probability entries such as Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah lag due to mid-year timing and comparatively limited franchise crossover appeal that historically caps opening-weekend ceilings.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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