The International Court of Justice’s May 2026 order extended South Africa’s reply deadline to November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder to May 2029 in the Gaza genocide case, confirming that written pleadings, any jurisdictional hearings, and a final merits judgment will extend well beyond December 2027. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants only for war crimes and crimes against humanity against Israeli officials, with no genocide charges filed or trials scheduled. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these do not alter the court’s multi-year procedural calendar. Traders therefore assign an 87.5 percent probability that no international court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders before the market’s resolution date.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update13% tsansa
$99,211 Vol.
$99,211 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
13% tsansa
$99,211 Vol.
$99,211 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The International Court of Justice’s May 2026 order extended South Africa’s reply deadline to November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder to May 2029 in the Gaza genocide case, confirming that written pleadings, any jurisdictional hearings, and a final merits judgment will extend well beyond December 2027. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants only for war crimes and crimes against humanity against Israeli officials, with no genocide charges filed or trials scheduled. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these do not alter the court’s multi-year procedural calendar. Traders therefore assign an 87.5 percent probability that no international court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders before the market’s resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$99,211Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The International Court of Justice’s May 2026 order extended South Africa’s reply deadline to November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder to May 2029 in the Gaza genocide case, confirming that written pleadings, any jurisdictional hearings, and a final merits judgment will extend well beyond December 2027. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants only for war crimes and crimes against humanity against Israeli officials, with no genocide charges filed or trials scheduled. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these do not alter the court’s multi-year procedural calendar. Traders therefore assign an 87.5 percent probability that no international court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders before the market’s resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,211Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The International Court of Justice’s May 2026 order extended South Africa’s reply deadline to November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder to May 2029 in the Gaza genocide case, confirming that written pleadings, any jurisdictional hearings, and a final merits judgment will extend well beyond December 2027. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants only for war crimes and crimes against humanity against Israeli officials, with no genocide charges filed or trials scheduled. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these do not alter the court’s multi-year procedural calendar. Traders therefore assign an 87.5 percent probability that no international court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders before the market’s resolution date.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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