The recent inauguration of Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella and his administration’s authorization of joint military operations with U.S. forces against narcoterrorist and transnational criminal organizations have strengthened bilateral security cooperation. This includes Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition, a pledged $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and coordinated counternarcotics efforts under initiatives like Plan Patriota 2.0. Traders assign overwhelming probability to no invasion because these developments reflect aligned interests and consensual partnership rather than adversarial military action. Historical tensions under the prior administration have given way to diplomatic reset and interoperability. Unforeseen escalations beyond agreed joint operations, leadership shifts, or major incidents disrupting the relationship remain the primary variables that could still influence outcomes before year-end.