NHC forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 45 knots maximum sustained winds near 18°N 132°W, will encounter increasing vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air intrusions that limit further organization. Official guidance projects steady or slightly fluctuating intensity over the next 24–36 hours followed by gradual weakening, with the system expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low and dissipate well east of Hawaii by mid-week. These conditions, combined with the storm’s westward track into cooler waters and less favorable thermodynamics, underpin the 79% market-implied probability against hurricane-strength winds of 64 knots or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Traders are weighting the consensus model runs showing no intensification window before environmental hostility dominates.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
36% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 21, 2026
36% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 21, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.NHC forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 45 knots maximum sustained winds near 18°N 132°W, will encounter increasing vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air intrusions that limit further organization. Official guidance projects steady or slightly fluctuating intensity over the next 24–36 hours followed by gradual weakening, with the system expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low and dissipate well east of Hawaii by mid-week. These conditions, combined with the storm’s westward track into cooler waters and less favorable thermodynamics, underpin the 79% market-implied probability against hurricane-strength winds of 64 knots or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Traders are weighting the consensus model runs showing no intensification window before environmental hostility dominates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$313Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 22, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.NHC forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 45 knots maximum sustained winds near 18°N 132°W, will encounter increasing vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air intrusions that limit further organization. Official guidance projects steady or slightly fluctuating intensity over the next 24–36 hours followed by gradual weakening, with the system expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low and dissipate well east of Hawaii by mid-week. These conditions, combined with the storm’s westward track into cooler waters and less favorable thermodynamics, underpin the 79% market-implied probability against hurricane-strength winds of 64 knots or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Traders are weighting the consensus model runs showing no intensification window before environmental hostility dominates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Volume
$313Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 22, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...NHC forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 45 knots maximum sustained winds near 18°N 132°W, will encounter increasing vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air intrusions that limit further organization. Official guidance projects steady or slightly fluctuating intensity over the next 24–36 hours followed by gradual weakening, with the system expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low and dissipate well east of Hawaii by mid-week. These conditions, combined with the storm’s westward track into cooler waters and less favorable thermodynamics, underpin the 79% market-implied probability against hurricane-strength winds of 64 knots or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Traders are weighting the consensus model runs showing no intensification window before environmental hostility dominates.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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