Intensified U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil shipments to China and entities involved in shadow banking networks have added direct economic pressure on Tehran, further constraining export revenues and foreign currency inflows. Ongoing naval measures in the Strait of Hormuz and related enforcement actions have compounded these effects, contributing to rial weakness amid elevated domestic inflation and limited access to international markets. With the May 31 resolution window approaching, any additional designations or shifts in enforcement could accelerate exchange-rate movements, while de-escalation signals or eased restrictions remain the primary factors that might stabilize the rate before the deadline. Trader positioning reflects these near-term geopolitical and enforcement dynamics as the dominant influences on the outcome.