Spain enters Group H as the clear favorite to finish first given its superior squad depth, recent Nations League success, and historical consistency in major tournaments, leaving second place as a tight contest primarily between Uruguay and the remaining sides. Uruguay’s blend of experienced veterans, strong CONMEBOL qualifying form, and favorable early schedule positioning underpins its 57% implied probability, while Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde trail due to thinner attacking options and limited recent high-level results. The bunched probabilities around 50% for the next tier reflect the group’s balanced schedule—Spain vs. Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay open on June 15—where a single result could shift momentum in the three remaining fixtures through June 26. Traders price in realistic upset potential from organized defenses or set-piece threats while recognizing Spain’s expected nine-point haul.