**Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 99.7% reflects the exceptionally high legal threshold for denaturalization and the complete absence of any filed case or credible evidence against Zohran Mamdani.** Mamdani, New York City’s mayor since January 2026 and a naturalized citizen since 2018, faces no active DOJ or USCIS proceedings despite earlier 2025 Republican calls for investigation tied to pre-naturalization statements. Denaturalization requires civil or criminal court action proving illegal procurement or willful material misrepresentation that would have altered the outcome—standards immigration experts describe as rare and demanding “clear, unequivocal, and convincing evidence.” No public record supports such claims in his case. The short timeline to the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution further lowers the odds, as even initiated proceedings typically involve lengthy litigation. While the Trump administration has accelerated denaturalization filings in 2026—primarily targeting individuals with undisclosed criminal histories—this policy shift has not produced any action against Mamdani amid ongoing public scrutiny of his role. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden DOJ filing with rapid court resolution before year-end or newly surfaced primary-source evidence of fraud meeting the statutory bar, though both remain highly improbable given current facts and procedural realities.