Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance, underscored by President Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win and consistent GOP Senate victories with double-digit margins, drives trader consensus to a 94% implied probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's switch to the 2026 gubernatorial race opened the seat, but recent polls through early May show Rep. Barry Moore leading a fragmented GOP primary field ahead of the May 19 vote, with a likely runoff in June; the winner is viewed as a prohibitive favorite against a nascent Democratic field lacking high-profile challengers. Scenarios to upend this include a post-primary GOP scandal, unprecedented Democratic fundraising surge, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates favor the structural GOP edge in this deep-red state.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAlabama Senate Election Winner
Alabama Senate Election Winner
$10,160 Обс.
$10,160 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
94%
Democrat
6%
$10,160 Обс.
$10,160 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$6,336 Обс.
94%
Democrat
$3,823 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance, underscored by President Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win and consistent GOP Senate victories with double-digit margins, drives trader consensus to a 94% implied probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's switch to the 2026 gubernatorial race opened the seat, but recent polls through early May show Rep. Barry Moore leading a fragmented GOP primary field ahead of the May 19 vote, with a likely runoff in June; the winner is viewed as a prohibitive favorite against a nascent Democratic field lacking high-profile challengers. Scenarios to upend this include a post-primary GOP scandal, unprecedented Democratic fundraising surge, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates favor the structural GOP edge in this deep-red state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$10,160Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance, underscored by President Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win and consistent GOP Senate victories with double-digit margins, drives trader consensus to a 94% implied probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's switch to the 2026 gubernatorial race opened the seat, but recent polls through early May show Rep. Barry Moore leading a fragmented GOP primary field ahead of the May 19 vote, with a likely runoff in June; the winner is viewed as a prohibitive favorite against a nascent Democratic field lacking high-profile challengers. Scenarios to upend this include a post-primary GOP scandal, unprecedented Democratic fundraising surge, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates favor the structural GOP edge in this deep-red state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Обсяг
$10,160Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance, underscored by President Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win and consistent GOP Senate victories with double-digit margins, drives trader consensus to a 94% implied probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's switch to the 2026 gubernatorial race opened the seat, but recent polls through early May show Rep. Barry Moore leading a fragmented GOP primary field ahead of the May 19 vote, with a likely runoff in June; the winner is viewed as a prohibitive favorite against a nascent Democratic field lacking high-profile challengers. Scenarios to upend this include a post-primary GOP scandal, unprecedented Democratic fundraising surge, or national midterm wave, though historical base rates favor the structural GOP edge in this deep-red state.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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