Republican Barry Moore defeated Democrat Everett Wess by approximately 9.5 percentage points in the November 3 election for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to unofficial statewide results with nearly all counties reporting. This margin aligns directly with the leading trader consensus on a Republican victory of 5-10 points. The open seat, created when incumbent Tommy Tuberville pursued the governorship instead, featured Moore securing the GOP nomination after a primary backed by former President Trump. Pre-election polling averages projected a larger Republican lead around 15 points, yet final returns came in narrower amid national Democratic gains in Congress and Alabama’s established partisan patterns. Traders’ emphasis on the 5-10% band reflects expectations that remaining provisional, absentee, and write-in ballots will keep the certified margin within that range rather than shifting it to adjacent categories.