The abrupt March 2026 cancellation of *The Bachelorette* Season 22, announced by Disney Entertainment Television hours after TMZ released a 2023 video showing lead Taylor Frankie Paul in a physical altercation with ex Dakota Mortensen, drives the overwhelming 91.5% implied probability on season cancellation. Filming had wrapped in December 2025 with a full cast of suitors announced, yet the domestic violence footage and ongoing investigation made broadcast untenable for ABC, marking the first such pull in franchise history. No revival has materialized through September despite post-production continuing and sporadic rumors of a summer slot. Doug Mason, the unaired season’s reported winner per *Secret Lives of Mormon Wives* spoilers, and other contestants hold single-digit odds because markets view the outcome as a non-event. An upset would require an official network reversal to air the existing episodes or a restructured resolution, both of which lack confirmed momentum amid Taylor’s personal legal matters and franchise scheduling priorities.