Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for AI models surpassing current LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks by year-end, with top Elo scores hovering around 1560 as of mid-May 2026—led by OpenAI's GPT-5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants. Recent catalysts include GPT-5's April release pushing the frontier to 1561 Elo via superior reasoning in blind user battles, while Claude Sonnet 4.6 hit 1633 in coding subcategories, intensifying competition from Google Gemini 3.1 and xAI Grok 4. Progress has accelerated in 2026, with scores rising over 60 Elo points since January amid massive scaling and fine-tuning. Key upcoming events: anticipated Q3 launches from Meta Llama 5 and DeepSeek V4, plus developer conferences like OpenAI DevDay in July, could trigger rapid leaderboard shifts if new capabilities demonstrate against established benchmarks. Delays or safety pauses remain risks in this high-stakes race.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
$89,545 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1550
32%
↑ 1600
18%
↑ 1650
11%
↑ 1700
10%
$89,545 Обс.
↑ 1550
$28,352 Обс.
32%
↑ 1600
$15,265 Обс.
18%
↑ 1650
$7,173 Обс.
11%
↑ 1700
$5,000 Обс.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for AI models surpassing current LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks by year-end, with top Elo scores hovering around 1560 as of mid-May 2026—led by OpenAI's GPT-5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants. Recent catalysts include GPT-5's April release pushing the frontier to 1561 Elo via superior reasoning in blind user battles, while Claude Sonnet 4.6 hit 1633 in coding subcategories, intensifying competition from Google Gemini 3.1 and xAI Grok 4. Progress has accelerated in 2026, with scores rising over 60 Elo points since January amid massive scaling and fine-tuning. Key upcoming events: anticipated Q3 launches from Meta Llama 5 and DeepSeek V4, plus developer conferences like OpenAI DevDay in July, could trigger rapid leaderboard shifts if new capabilities demonstrate against established benchmarks. Delays or safety pauses remain risks in this high-stakes race.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$89,545Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for AI models surpassing current LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks by year-end, with top Elo scores hovering around 1560 as of mid-May 2026—led by OpenAI's GPT-5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants. Recent catalysts include GPT-5's April release pushing the frontier to 1561 Elo via superior reasoning in blind user battles, while Claude Sonnet 4.6 hit 1633 in coding subcategories, intensifying competition from Google Gemini 3.1 and xAI Grok 4. Progress has accelerated in 2026, with scores rising over 60 Elo points since January amid massive scaling and fine-tuning. Key upcoming events: anticipated Q3 launches from Meta Llama 5 and DeepSeek V4, plus developer conferences like OpenAI DevDay in July, could trigger rapid leaderboard shifts if new capabilities demonstrate against established benchmarks. Delays or safety pauses remain risks in this high-stakes race.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$89,545Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for AI models surpassing current LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks by year-end, with top Elo scores hovering around 1560 as of mid-May 2026—led by OpenAI's GPT-5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants. Recent catalysts include GPT-5's April release pushing the frontier to 1561 Elo via superior reasoning in blind user battles, while Claude Sonnet 4.6 hit 1633 in coding subcategories, intensifying competition from Google Gemini 3.1 and xAI Grok 4. Progress has accelerated in 2026, with scores rising over 60 Elo points since January amid massive scaling and fine-tuning. Key upcoming events: anticipated Q3 launches from Meta Llama 5 and DeepSeek V4, plus developer conferences like OpenAI DevDay in July, could trigger rapid leaderboard shifts if new capabilities demonstrate against established benchmarks. Delays or safety pauses remain risks in this high-stakes race.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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