Rapid iteration among frontier AI labs continues to drive scores on the Arena.ai Overall leaderboard, with Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 releases in June–July 2026 establishing new highs near or above 1520–1530. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, Google’s Gemini 3.x variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and frequent drops from DeepSeek and Qwen have intensified competition, compressing the gap between top models. Traders are watching release cadence, benchmark gains on agentic and reasoning tasks, and whether any lab can sustain incremental lifts through year-end. Multiple major updates remain likely before December 31, supporting elevated probabilities for further score thresholds being crossed.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
$142,125 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1520
61%
↑ 1530
29%
↑ 1540
18%
↑ 1550
12%
↑ 1600
10%
↑ 1650
8%
↑ 1700
3%
$142,125 Обс.
↑ 1520
$7,214 Обс.
61%
↑ 1530
$7,374 Обс.
29%
↑ 1540
$1,337 Обс.
18%
↑ 1550
$48,924 Обс.
12%
↑ 1600
$23,009 Обс.
10%
↑ 1650
$8,600 Обс.
8%
↑ 1700
$9,009 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Rapid iteration among frontier AI labs continues to drive scores on the Arena.ai Overall leaderboard, with Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 releases in June–July 2026 establishing new highs near or above 1520–1530. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, Google’s Gemini 3.x variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and frequent drops from DeepSeek and Qwen have intensified competition, compressing the gap between top models. Traders are watching release cadence, benchmark gains on agentic and reasoning tasks, and whether any lab can sustain incremental lifts through year-end. Multiple major updates remain likely before December 31, supporting elevated probabilities for further score thresholds being crossed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$142,125Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Rapid iteration among frontier AI labs continues to drive scores on the Arena.ai Overall leaderboard, with Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 releases in June–July 2026 establishing new highs near or above 1520–1530. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, Google’s Gemini 3.x variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and frequent drops from DeepSeek and Qwen have intensified competition, compressing the gap between top models. Traders are watching release cadence, benchmark gains on agentic and reasoning tasks, and whether any lab can sustain incremental lifts through year-end. Multiple major updates remain likely before December 31, supporting elevated probabilities for further score thresholds being crossed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$142,125Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid iteration among frontier AI labs continues to drive scores on the Arena.ai Overall leaderboard, with Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 releases in June–July 2026 establishing new highs near or above 1520–1530. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, Google’s Gemini 3.x variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and frequent drops from DeepSeek and Qwen have intensified competition, compressing the gap between top models. Traders are watching release cadence, benchmark gains on agentic and reasoning tasks, and whether any lab can sustain incremental lifts through year-end. Multiple major updates remain likely before December 31, supporting elevated probabilities for further score thresholds being crossed.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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