The 87% "No" probability on the Cuban regime falling by December 31, 2026, reflects trader assessments that the Communist Party of Cuba under Miguel Díaz-Canel retains de facto control despite acute economic pressures. Intensified U.S. fuel sanctions and the cutoff of Venezuelan oil supplies since January 2026 have produced severe shortages, blackouts, and localized protests, yet the regime has responded with expanded repression, record political prisoner numbers, and a June package of economic reforms aimed at attracting investment and decentralizing administration. High-level bilateral talks, selective prisoner releases, and the cohesion of Cuba's armed forces and security apparatus have prevented escalation into systemic transition. Historical patterns of regime endurance under external isolation further support the current trader consensus on limited near-term prospects for full collapse.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCuban regime falls in 2026?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
12% шанс
$1,619,698 Обс.
$1,619,698 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
12% шанс
$1,619,698 Обс.
$1,619,698 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 87% "No" probability on the Cuban regime falling by December 31, 2026, reflects trader assessments that the Communist Party of Cuba under Miguel Díaz-Canel retains de facto control despite acute economic pressures. Intensified U.S. fuel sanctions and the cutoff of Venezuelan oil supplies since January 2026 have produced severe shortages, blackouts, and localized protests, yet the regime has responded with expanded repression, record political prisoner numbers, and a June package of economic reforms aimed at attracting investment and decentralizing administration. High-level bilateral talks, selective prisoner releases, and the cohesion of Cuba's armed forces and security apparatus have prevented escalation into systemic transition. Historical patterns of regime endurance under external isolation further support the current trader consensus on limited near-term prospects for full collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,619,698Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 87% "No" probability on the Cuban regime falling by December 31, 2026, reflects trader assessments that the Communist Party of Cuba under Miguel Díaz-Canel retains de facto control despite acute economic pressures. Intensified U.S. fuel sanctions and the cutoff of Venezuelan oil supplies since January 2026 have produced severe shortages, blackouts, and localized protests, yet the regime has responded with expanded repression, record political prisoner numbers, and a June package of economic reforms aimed at attracting investment and decentralizing administration. High-level bilateral talks, selective prisoner releases, and the cohesion of Cuba's armed forces and security apparatus have prevented escalation into systemic transition. Historical patterns of regime endurance under external isolation further support the current trader consensus on limited near-term prospects for full collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,619,698Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 87% "No" probability on the Cuban regime falling by December 31, 2026, reflects trader assessments that the Communist Party of Cuba under Miguel Díaz-Canel retains de facto control despite acute economic pressures. Intensified U.S. fuel sanctions and the cutoff of Venezuelan oil supplies since January 2026 have produced severe shortages, blackouts, and localized protests, yet the regime has responded with expanded repression, record political prisoner numbers, and a June package of economic reforms aimed at attracting investment and decentralizing administration. High-level bilateral talks, selective prisoner releases, and the cohesion of Cuba's armed forces and security apparatus have prevented escalation into systemic transition. Historical patterns of regime endurance under external isolation further support the current trader consensus on limited near-term prospects for full collapse.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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