Trader consensus assigns a 96% implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically concentrated in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo despite rapid local growth exceeding 6,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths by early September. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC classify global export risk as low, citing effective border screening, limited intercontinental transmission in prior outbreaks, and the virus's dependence on direct bodily fluid contact rather than airborne spread. Response scaling, including contact tracing and experimental countermeasures, continues to limit wider dissemination. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include sustained failure to isolate cases amid insecurity, leading to multiple undetected exports and secondary chains outside Africa before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% шанс
$718,441 Обс.
$718,441 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
4% шанс
$718,441 Обс.
$718,441 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96% implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically concentrated in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo despite rapid local growth exceeding 6,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths by early September. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC classify global export risk as low, citing effective border screening, limited intercontinental transmission in prior outbreaks, and the virus's dependence on direct bodily fluid contact rather than airborne spread. Response scaling, including contact tracing and experimental countermeasures, continues to limit wider dissemination. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include sustained failure to isolate cases amid insecurity, leading to multiple undetected exports and secondary chains outside Africa before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$718,441Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96% implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically concentrated in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo despite rapid local growth exceeding 6,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths by early September. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC classify global export risk as low, citing effective border screening, limited intercontinental transmission in prior outbreaks, and the virus's dependence on direct bodily fluid contact rather than airborne spread. Response scaling, including contact tracing and experimental countermeasures, continues to limit wider dissemination. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include sustained failure to isolate cases amid insecurity, leading to multiple undetected exports and secondary chains outside Africa before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$718,441Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 96% implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically concentrated in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo despite rapid local growth exceeding 6,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths by early September. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC classify global export risk as low, citing effective border screening, limited intercontinental transmission in prior outbreaks, and the virus's dependence on direct bodily fluid contact rather than airborne spread. Response scaling, including contact tracing and experimental countermeasures, continues to limit wider dissemination. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include sustained failure to isolate cases amid insecurity, leading to multiple undetected exports and secondary chains outside Africa before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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