OpenAI's strongest 2026 models, including GPT-6 Astra at 54.7% and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants near 57-58%, currently trail Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 leaders (59-65% on September 2026 leaderboards) on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert benchmark emphasizing frontier reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities. Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching 55%+ by year-end at 83% but price 60%+ near even, reflecting rapid prior gains from reasoning scaffolds and tool use alongside uncertainty over whether new releases or optimizations can close the gap before December 31. Key catalysts include any GPT-6 iterations, competitive responses to Anthropic or Meta launches, and benchmark protocol differences between text-only and tool-assisted evaluations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
$107,737 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
77%
60%+
32%
65%+
16%
70%+
10%
$107,737 Обс.
55%+
$34,352 Обс.
77%
60%+
$41,111 Обс.
32%
65%+
$9,428 Обс.
16%
70%+
$5,516 Обс.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI's strongest 2026 models, including GPT-6 Astra at 54.7% and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants near 57-58%, currently trail Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 leaders (59-65% on September 2026 leaderboards) on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert benchmark emphasizing frontier reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities. Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching 55%+ by year-end at 83% but price 60%+ near even, reflecting rapid prior gains from reasoning scaffolds and tool use alongside uncertainty over whether new releases or optimizations can close the gap before December 31. Key catalysts include any GPT-6 iterations, competitive responses to Anthropic or Meta launches, and benchmark protocol differences between text-only and tool-assisted evaluations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$107,737Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI's strongest 2026 models, including GPT-6 Astra at 54.7% and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants near 57-58%, currently trail Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 leaders (59-65% on September 2026 leaderboards) on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert benchmark emphasizing frontier reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities. Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching 55%+ by year-end at 83% but price 60%+ near even, reflecting rapid prior gains from reasoning scaffolds and tool use alongside uncertainty over whether new releases or optimizations can close the gap before December 31. Key catalysts include any GPT-6 iterations, competitive responses to Anthropic or Meta launches, and benchmark protocol differences between text-only and tool-assisted evaluations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$107,737Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's strongest 2026 models, including GPT-6 Astra at 54.7% and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants near 57-58%, currently trail Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 leaders (59-65% on September 2026 leaderboards) on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert benchmark emphasizing frontier reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities. Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching 55%+ by year-end at 83% but price 60%+ near even, reflecting rapid prior gains from reasoning scaffolds and tool use alongside uncertainty over whether new releases or optimizations can close the gap before December 31. Key catalysts include any GPT-6 iterations, competitive responses to Anthropic or Meta launches, and benchmark protocol differences between text-only and tool-assisted evaluations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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