Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF guidance, and AEMET indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting strong daytime solar heating and a daily high near 31–32 °C. This places the market-implied probability peak at 32 °C, consistent with the ongoing above-average warmth observed through early September 2026, when several days exceeded 34 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows a 1991–2020 average high of 27.3 °C, underscoring the current positive anomaly. With resolution only two days away, ensemble spread remains narrow, limiting upside risk to 33 °C or higher while keeping lower outcomes (30 °C or below) as lower-probability outliers unless unexpected cloud cover develops. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final data for resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
32°C 57%
31°C 30%
33°C 14%
34°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
3%
31°C
30%
32°C
57%
33°C
14%
34°C
6%
35°C
5%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
32°C 57%
31°C 30%
33°C 14%
34°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
27°C or below
$0 Обс.
2%
28°C
$0 Обс.
2%
29°C
$0 Обс.
4%
30°C
$0 Обс.
3%
31°C
$60 Обс.
30%
32°C
$210 Обс.
57%
33°C
$0 Обс.
14%
34°C
$5 Обс.
6%
35°C
$0 Обс.
5%
36°C
$0 Обс.
1%
37°C or higher
$25 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF guidance, and AEMET indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting strong daytime solar heating and a daily high near 31–32 °C. This places the market-implied probability peak at 32 °C, consistent with the ongoing above-average warmth observed through early September 2026, when several days exceeded 34 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows a 1991–2020 average high of 27.3 °C, underscoring the current positive anomaly. With resolution only two days away, ensemble spread remains narrow, limiting upside risk to 33 °C or higher while keeping lower outcomes (30 °C or below) as lower-probability outliers unless unexpected cloud cover develops. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$300Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF guidance, and AEMET indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting strong daytime solar heating and a daily high near 31–32 °C. This places the market-implied probability peak at 32 °C, consistent with the ongoing above-average warmth observed through early September 2026, when several days exceeded 34 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows a 1991–2020 average high of 27.3 °C, underscoring the current positive anomaly. With resolution only two days away, ensemble spread remains narrow, limiting upside risk to 33 °C or higher while keeping lower outcomes (30 °C or below) as lower-probability outliers unless unexpected cloud cover develops. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$300Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF guidance, and AEMET indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting strong daytime solar heating and a daily high near 31–32 °C. This places the market-implied probability peak at 32 °C, consistent with the ongoing above-average warmth observed through early September 2026, when several days exceeded 34 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows a 1991–2020 average high of 27.3 °C, underscoring the current positive anomaly. With resolution only two days away, ensemble spread remains narrow, limiting upside risk to 33 °C or higher while keeping lower outcomes (30 °C or below) as lower-probability outliers unless unexpected cloud cover develops. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final data for resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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